tv U.S. Farm Report FOX June 24, 2012 4:00am-5:00am EDT
the supremeecoort on obamacare. what the ruling will mean for maryland . today on united states farm report. the senate demonstrates surprising bi-partisan ship as it passes a controversial farm bill. the cold war is really over as the united states presses for wto for russia. and crop condition ratings verify what many know. this one is going downhill. >> united states farm report brought to you by the 2012 chevy silv era do. . hello and welcome to united states farm report. farmers have multiple distractions competing for their attention right now.
farm bill action in congress, markets and advancing drought conditions. these could prove to be small rips compared to global trends. economies around the world are on the edge of resuccession while the us is still growing slow downs in india, china and brazil remove much of the cushion. keeping up with complex global economy is hard when it's all you can do to cope with no rain. it's never been more important to at least try. we will do our best to help. time for the headlines. here is tin morgan. >> hello. its been a busy week for farm bill discussions and it ended with the senate passing its version of the bill. senate majority leader said the senate debates 70 amendments throughout the week. among them was debate about the crop insurance inclusion in the
farm bill. the big issue is how to design a program helps crop insurance. he said the senate discussions have been addressing more than just farm support programs. >> the issues will include the conversation program, the funding and type of conservation program, the degree of cuts if any, the limitations on payments to farmers by farm programs and the structure and support for the sugar industry and the united states. on wednesday the senate voted to not change the depression era program that prodetects united states suggest growers. the house said it'll likely start markups on july 11th after they come back from the upcoming recess. russia will join the wtr by the end of summer. in a testimony the united states trade representative
urged congress to grant them permanent normal trade status. he said this would ensure groups receive the full benefits of russia going in to the wto. he said if the united states doesn't grant it then united states businesses and exporters will be at a competitive disadvantage compared to other countries. crop progress isn't looking much better in the eastern corn belt as many states are still begging for rain. the dryest areas seem to be in indiana. the latest crop progress report shows a continuing decline in the condition of the corn crop there. 32% of the indiana corn is good, another 5% is excellent. that's a 12 point decline from last week and a 20 point decline in two weeks. ohio has a 11 point drop. those are the headlines, now back to john. . let's head to the texas
panhandle where farmers adding up losses recent storms. we got photographs from chris. he said the storm shredded this corn crop. he also sent this photograph shot near texas. the wind was strong enough to blow over several segments of a pivot irrigation system. in washington county oregon most varieties of winter wheat have come out. statewide more than half the winter wheat is good. another 20% is excellent. when we come back al joins us to talk market was bob and andy. it all gets going in just two minutes. please stay with us.
have andy, we were kind of talking around here and i told bob that i was going to come to him and give me three things we need to discuss today and them we will let andy discuss them. >> okay. >> andy will tell us first of all what the weather is going to be like in the next 60 days. >> number one. >> two he will tell us what u.s.d.a. report also s will say and three what the election does in november. >> okay. >> real challenges. the weather is on everybody's mind at this point in time. it has affected the markets. actually in the last two wokes looks like it'll stay around for a while. >> i do crop insurance this time of year so i was traveling around state and illinois, particular next week i will go out to iowa and in general i will say the corn looks pretty good and it's hanging on. that's where it's at today. the corn is pretty short, not
tall like it was last year, not going to be tall. doesn't mean it can't yield but it's really short. i have to say. the beans, are like three to six inches tall and they are just hanging on. they are waiting for rain. the crop will hold back, trying to produce it here but i just think from travel around that all the big potential yields are gone. even if we start getting regular rains i think that's off the table and if we are going to start getting an inch a week, that's not in the forecast today, that's a little bit a problem. but i think that i think the yields dropped, six, seven bushels nationally and it can drop more if we don't get saved but it's a serious drought and my backyard is dry, my grass is dead. just makes me bullish. hard to get away from it. >> this is what happens in a bull market. this is a once in a five-year event. these are -- we are on power
with 88 so 96 to 2004. these are bullish markets. when the market has degraded, excitement for the bullish market and the bear has the weakest resolve is when the greatest opportunities exist. so it's in expectations market is trying to put premium in to the market to make -- we -- just came out with the new profit index and it's got its yield to corn down to 158. a lot think it can get to 152. i think the super dangerous one is beans, bean carry over could get extremely low. if there is ever a time that you had a defense of a short position this is not a market in the next two to three weeks that you need to be short futures or cash. is this to be a put, just a base be floor position because cash flow will be key in ability to have the emotions to pull the trigger to lock there
in profits. it's not time to be a cowboy. >> i think you are right. i think really scary because we lost production in brazil, over in russia, we are going to loose production in australia, wheat acres in canada aren't bing. now we have this drought situation and i think -- 90% of the time we take out the january highs. so, 597 would be that place. it would be a magnet and i would be interested in selling corn there but it'll be hard to do because we go there because the weather will be bullish. that will be the toughest part. >> i have talked to the guys on agriculture web radio, a lot of analyst its and some say be carlingful, don't over sell the crop. we have extended dry weather, you may not be able to fill those needs. . >> is this where a lot of the contract -- are really coming
in -- the great opportunity here where they sell the cash but at the same time you sell it they get the premium to make the decision. they have -- twice that many cash bushels. there is a lot of that around, six dollar corn and around the 14-dollar bean area. they will be in a net loss above that and if -- i would exclude -- a lost panicked buying but they are buying right at the cusp. i would say the corn markets, most of the bull ishness will be offer by january 6th. >> you said january 6 president. . >> july. july. july 6th. >> that's most of the corn bullishnes will be over. for it to go higher it'll have to rely on beans. if we are going to exceed above the 6-dollar limit. i think in the september is -- everybody is talking it but it's very tough resistance. >> still a lot of people think beans will bring it up. >> yeah. i think they will still be a
. round table guest. talking about a lot of thing that are going on. not very far, we are talking agriculture here at this point in time. i have been told by a lot of the marketers that the dollar will continue going up. that's not good for us at i don't think. also the -- maybe the europe markets aren't going to do so good. i'm getting in to what we call the outside markets and their effect on agriculture and the ability of the people in this country and the ability of the people that need our agriculture produce to be able to buy it. is that a problem? >> well i think this issue
stems back a long way. i know in the last week everybody was like wanting like a two or three and i can remember there is a movie you can watch on hbo or something where the last line in the movie is we made -- [inaudible] they printed the money but never lent it and we never had the money hit the public lie we wanted to and the mortgage situation stuck still until recently. we have seen some movement in mortgages and a lot of refinances, i refinanced a couple of houses in the last week and that thing is -- finally loosening up so they want that money to go out there. you wonder why banks get downgraded when i just signed a 30 year loan for 3.6. >> i would suggest that the market is going to ignore the outside markets as long as the dry weather continues. as soon as the weather becomes a nonfactor which would be here in the middle of the summer,
july, august, then elections over i am worried about the macro market after elections, it's a political pressure, you want -- the incumbent wants it to look good into elections which he will do all he can to keep a fuel price low, food prices low and economy looking good. if you artificially make it to good for a short period you will pay for it and i think most people are more worried for novato next february and that will lean to a dollar rallies. that leans more to the fact that if we get the weather spike, the weather move you could see prices a lot higher, a lot lower in the fall so i would use it as a selling window. >> thing this is -- why we agree with bob and a lot of is like 2008 type of thing whether it was the china market really flat and negative and the stock market has been bad and they
aren't making money and europe has been the same place its been for a year and there is just not much growth and not going to be much growth any time so. >> doesn't look like much growth here because the unemployment isn't going down. >> the economy is the new economy. this is what it's going to be for a while. you won't see the 90 -- 2001, 2008 extreme optimism. i don't think that's coming back for a long time. this is the new normal where you will have to have money, be conservative, debt is not a good word and people will live more conversative and unemployment will be harder to find a job. >> i don't think the banks can keep doing the 3.5 loans, i think that has to change. >> go down. >> the interest rate also have to go up and nobody wants --. if that goes up that's bad --. >> more negative and that's all -- the only way to is inflate. that's the thing that farmers long term are looking for is
inflation but that is down the way. that's far enough that we can't talk about that. that's probably a year and a half down the way. >> we can talk about a year and a half because the farmer has to plan about next year and the year after and a lot of them will pass the operations on so what do they need to do? >> there is a -- if you get corn below the cost of production. >> yes. >> i would argue that -- you have to buy corn to protect the rising input costs because it goes from $4.50 to seven. nitrogen costs go from three dollars to a thousand. buying corn is a way to off set or counter hedge the risks which is where we are talking inflation. you have to be a buyer, every spring a cellar. >> i think with -- you want to get the corn price above your guarantee this year. we will have continues to do that. we have had many in soybeans. i think it you are getting it right now in corn. we will move above the guarantee. right around there, for the crop insurance.
. cindy joins us and very noticed the storm's centers get to the midwest and then side newspaper to wisconsin and minnesota all the time. it's not changed. >> they have been getting soaked with rain while we see the drought in much of the corn belt. the jet stream has been very persistent. it's not budged. its been in a pattern that lets those folks get the rain up north and we aren't seeing nearly of enough of what we need and the good part of the rest of the country. south southeast getting rain. we need more. we are getting really bad and you can see on the latest drought monitor we are starting to see more cases of -- even
extreme drought in the nation's midsection. this is not a good picture if you look here we are starting to see more reds and oranges, that's where we see the severe and extreme droughts, marching to the north as we get in to the corn belt because we aren't seeing the rain. that pattern that's been bringing the rain closer to the united states, canada border and not down to the south where its been extremely dry. unfortunately the outlook isn't all that great either because all of the areas in red means that drought is expected over the next couple months to persist or even get stronger. not good news for most of the corn belt. in fact we are looking at potential development of drought conditions in parts of south dakota, nebraska, iowa as well. the only areas where we are expecting to see continued relief is down in to the southeast, florida, parts of georgia and you have seen to much rain there as well. some more of that green where it's likely to improve in parts of the southwest. let's take a look at what the
week ahead has in store. as far as the jet stream we do see a change in the jet stream. we will see a dip and bringing much cooler air in to the northeast and part of the united states. it'll still be warm in much of the nation's midsection but a big cooldown while it stays warm in the west at least through the weekend. let's take a look at the map. we will see a cold front come through that should bring a little bit of rain as we get through sunday and then affecting aparts of the northeast into monday and then a stationary front brings more rain to the plains out west. into wednesday, we will see cooler air in much of the corn belt so that will be good news -- give the crops a little bit a break even if it's on the dry side. wet in the northeast. another system brewing in parts of the high plains and into the northern plains, and as we get into friday another system moves east and this may be good news for parts of the central
. the central feature of the passed senate version of the new farm bill is the shift to a crop insurance based form of government support. while many are hoping this will mitigate some of the risks we are now facing i think they are mistaken. while the bill is good news foration companies it'll likely continue one tradition by costing much more than advertised. because of open end exposure during lower prices a economist has set out the five billion dollar saving from ending direct payments could transform into an eight to 14 billion- dollar pay out. so much for austerity.
while it seems like a good thing we continue to forget these subsides always go to the squarest resource, land. suppose are you in central indiana right now. the center of the route and negotiating to buy or rent land. your bid will necessarily be adjusted for the risk now looking at you in the face but suppose you know your loss will be minimal because of the new insurance coverage. both you and your competition will use that to bid up until your margin is razor thin in order to expand. your insurance sobbed just became a land owner subsides. farmers always little more than conduits for government money to flow through to land owners. this bill will offer offer minimal relief from risk. let us know what you think. e-mail, or call and leave us a voicemail. coming up in the next half
. today on united states farm report, customers are becoming regulators as more meat buyers demand higher animal welfare standards. feed costs and drought finally catch up with ground beef prices as fewer cattle head to vaughter warm winters are hard on some crops. >> united states farm report, brought to you by the 2012 chevy, the most dependable. longest lasting full sized pick up on the road. hello. there may be only one emotional situation to rival watching a desperately needed rain slide by the edge of your farm. being one of the fortunate few under such a tiny cloud burst. because of accurate weather two
of my neighbors and can tell who got how much rain. any relief we feel is rapidly tempered by our sympathy for those who were not lucky this time. you can tell when a dry spell has turned in to a drought. few of us want to talk about it. any mention of our situation can only add to a colleague's worry or our own. progressive misery of a drought becomes the elephant in the room. let's get started the headlines. >> thank you. more restaurants saying no to the use of gestation crates, sonic and cracker barrel said they won't use them. this adds to a growing list to only take pork from those who use open sow housing. the stripped say said current helicopter odds is a decision based on sound science. >> we didn't wake up one day
and start building the houses. we -- it involved over 30, 40 years, there is a benefit to the animal and to the people and month ie that work with them. >> hunt said restaurant chains making the move to eliminate the stalls will have a wake up call when pork supply isn't there. he said due to the small numbers of sows currently in open housing it'll take at least a deck awed to make the switch and meet the new demand. one economist says making the transition to new production meth odds will come at a added cost to producers and that will be passed onto consumers. as pork prices expected to rise consumers are already paying more for beef. consumers now shelling out three dollars a pound for ground beef. that's a new nationwide record. giving to the record prices fewer cattle, higher e importants and less supply. the decrease in supply comes after many companies have moved
away from lean finely textured brief drillings. not only is the michigan fruit crop hurting it's maple syrup production is taking a hit. it's down 47%. the warm winter and spring caused the season to start and end earlier than normal . every maple producing state but maine had lower than average production this year, nationwide production is down 32% from last year. how do you know that the u.s.d.a. certified organic sticker on fresh produce is right? new legislation has been proposed in the united states house of representatives to ensure organicly labeled items meet standards. the bill is being called the organic standards protection act. the program would have more authority to police growers. it would let the department stop the sale of products that are miss labeled.
it would fine them up to $10,000. and speak of that, more than -- people seem to want locally produced food and later this half hour i will take you back to my home state of month and show you a japane se grower who has found a niche market. >> what is he growing? >> edamane but all kinds. >> my rule of thumb is if you can't spell it maybe you shouldn't eat it. >> i will make you try it. >> okay. i will with hold judgement. that's it for news. cindy now with the national forecast. >> there have been a lot of storeys in weather from drought to much rain across the united states. the drought here in the much of the corn belt, we will see maybe a couple of chances for rain as we head into the week. to start off we will see cooler temperatures in much of the northeast quadrant of the
country, wet weather into new england. maybe a little more shower and thunderstorm activity out into the plain states and of course down in southern florida you will see more rain. have you been seeing a lot of rain there as well. into wednesday big dips in the jet stream means pretty cool air in the eastern, almost half of the country. we still keep the heat in the nation's midsection. chance for rain into a lot of the plain states and into the southeast, northeast as well. that rain is going to finally make it back into parts of the central and eastern corn belt where we really see the drought did not conditions. is this what it look its like on friday. another chance of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front makes its way through. notitia the jet stream is changing. we will start to shift in a to a slightly cooler pattern especially in the northeast part of the country. probably still on the hot side. let's look into the future and see what that has in store for us as far as next week, we are
still expecting to seat warm temperatures in the western half of the country. a little on the cool side with that dip in the jet stream in the northeast. from the great lakes in through new england. fairly normal temperatures in the southeast? as we head for precipitation maybe a bit on the wet side from the upper great lakes in to the northern plains and we will see above normal precipitation in the southeast, perhaps a little dry into the ohio and maybe the tennessee valleys, dry from texas through the west coast. little bit further in to the future, 30 day temperatures, we are still looking at that shift bringing the cooler temperatures, great lakes into the northeast and we are looking at -- some warmer than normal temperatures and a good part of the western united states and all long the gulf coast. what about that all important precipitation? here is what it looks like. normal for a lot of the corn belt so that's not bad news. we need a little more than what we are getting there. looks to be on the wet side as
we head into new england and basically all through the atlantic and then seeing dry conditions through much of the plains and even into the four corners area. so it's not horrible news as far as -- the 30 day outlook but we would like to see the cool and wet to get the crops a break. >> thank you. spirit of the heart land is next. . >> this portion of united states farm report is brought to you by pr esario fungicide. all i wanna do
>> just get in there and -- you won't get the whole root system. . >> reporter: mark is a teacher by trade. >> i was anything but a farmer when i was growing up. >> reporter: he went to japan and taught english for 12 years. there he fell in love and married a woman from japan and started a family. his love went beyond those three. he also sloped a passion for farming. >> while there i got into farming actually. i really liked the small scale organic traditional farming they got over there and i read books and then i got to know some farmers and we decided to move back to the united states and seemed like a good direction. >> when he made the trek back to the states and returned home he brought his family and a box of seeds. in four years it's grown to 70 to 80 varieties on his farms. >> agent 80 to 90% are the japan varieties we import. we import the seeds over. we are year round here at the
farm. we have a couple of high tunnels and we use low as well to try to grow as much as possible 12 months out of the year. >> other than the hot summers and hard winters growing the vegetables has a good fit. >> the latitude is similar to where we were in japan and things that are daylight, diluent sensitive tent to do the same way here they would over there. >> and this family farm continues to find new growing meth odds to continue to stay green. this year they are trying no till and the key to that is actually straw and rice holes. >> we mulch a bed about 12- inches deep in the early spring or late winter and let that start breaking down the root systems underneath. >> it's a natural method without equipment, or pesticides. he said this type of farming does take more time, building the bed from the top town takes about a year to get the soil prime for planting. >> i don't want to feel like
we are gasping for air all the time. i want it so it's uniform and there is a beauty to it. we are always trying to make it simple. >> that process helps create a unique story for the farms and that story is what helps create a consumer base with a growing hunger for their product. >> a quality, it's -- the most important thing, even more than local or more than organic, when we take the stuff to the farmer's market we don't want people to buy it because it's local or because it's organic but because it's the best we can grow. >> though he has stepped down from teaching he hasn't lost his teacher's touch and fills that love at the local farmer's market. >> we try to educate people as much as we can. we bring in -- i'm interested in the history and the culture of the varieties, not just how to eat them but where they camphora from. we. >> it's more than just consumers learning lessons through him. his two children are also involved every step of the way.
>> right now we have a hen house with about 50 laying hens and they are not quite ready for eggs but are getting and that's their responsibility. they help in the field and i think it's many indication for them as well. they know the taste of all the different foods and all the different seasons and i think that's very important for children. >> he has been farming full time for about a year and laying the ground for what he see as the successful future for his family. >> i hope not just to survive but to thrive. >> i'm tine morgan. >> he said it's a green soybean that tends to be sweeter in flavor. . it's unique in its -- it has the vitamins of a vegetable and the protein of a soybean. many of other farmers committed to a certain color farm equipment. you do really have a choice when your last name is case? the case legacy. . up next why ditching dairy
some people cannot drink milk or eat ice cream without getting sick, so they remove it from their diet. if you consider yourself . in remove food from their diet. if you may want to think about adding, not taking out dairy. in this report, provided by the dairy association, clark pow el tells you why. >> when she is in the mood for a snack she has to be careful. she is intolerant to milk meaning she often this just as much as what she can't eat as what she can. >> when i drink milk it makes me feel sick like a couple hours after. it's not like instant. >> she starts feeling sick, not feeling good, gets cramps. >> she wasself diagnosed.
they are committed to keeping at least some dairy in her diet. health experts say that's important. even if you have it, the answer is not the avoidance of dairy but including it in a managed way. >> reporter: a she speaks to everybody from individual patients to rooms full of health expects. she said doing without dairy especially in teens can mean trouble for years to come. >> can lead to bone health problems, wait management problems, and potentially cardiac problems. >> to avoid that you shouldn't just say you are intolerant but talk to a doctor about it. there is a simple test to determine it. even with symptoms most patients can tolerant things like hard cheeses and yogurt and will also a market of
4,000. this is the last year production for the -- the four cylinder series tractor that ford made going am the way back to the jubilees. they were the same base engine, 134, 172, the 4,000s had the 172 in them. most of the tractors this time were still made in the utility of the standard white front version would the row crops with kind of catching on but weren't as popular and when the 4,000 came out it was when ford changed to blue paint. we bought this locally. again in auction. it had a -- loader on it. the famous one armed bandit and we used it to do everything. it was tired, wore out. when we restored we didn't put the loader back on. we had a completely apart the
rear end, had some gears that were bad, believe it was third or 4th gear this had chips out of the teeth. all new seals, bearings, whatever we found that was wore out we replaced. part i enjoyed doing the paint was this was new holland paintw. want to use this tractor more but we have enough other tractors in the collection that have the same three point, same engine what have you that can do the same job. you really hate to put something up to it, it's just been -- one of these days i'm sure we will get it. >> today's country church salute goes to st. paul's in wisconsin. it's located in door county off lake michigan shoreline. it's a member of the wisconsin lutheran center. they were first weight in 1862, a second one was built in 1869
and a third in 1896. they have a membership of more than 1200 people prompting them to take a active role in the church. their website says be doers of the word and not hearers only. hour thank you to ken for sharing the news about st. paul's. as always we want to learn about your home church as well. salutes can be sent to the us, the mailbag is en. next. time now for our weekly look inside the farm report mailbag.... we get lots of e- mails, and voicemails, and occasionally one of these - mailmail. this one was written on something called a typewriter, which i had to explain to my younger colleagues. anyway, dr john
to my younger colleague. any way he is a fan of the show and shared a memory of the farm. the farm had two water systems, the cisterns have provide stability. he was writing about comments i had made about drought on the farm and my adventure when i replaced all my toilets for low flow models to save water. you can find my account of the repair in the spring issue of farm journal. thank you for watching writing john. we also had a dual water system when i was a kid. thehe hot water came from the cisterns and the cold from the well. it did help water conversation i remember one problem when we got the first shower. we found that having two separate systems, both changing between 20 and 40 pounds during the cycle but completely independently meant maintaining a shower temperature between to hot and to cold was like playing a video game.
we soon all developed the ability to shower with one hand while constantly fiddling with the faucets. the current drought has made me grateful for those low flow toilets we are notion and because of your letter i almost wish we still had a cistern, almost. as always, we want to hear from you. send comments to mailbag at united states farm report.com or leave us a voicemail. for all of us, thank you for watching united states farm report. be sure to join us again next week. we will work to do even better. good morning everyone... i'm kevin lewis. . here's what else is making news this morning, sunday, toss to cindi over svr